Air Cargo Boosted by December Surges, But E-Commerce Signals Uncertain for Future

Air Cargo Market Trends: 2025’s Strong Close

As the air cargo industry wrapped up 2025, reports from market analytics firm Xeneta revealed a 6% increase in December air cargo volumes, culminating in a solid annual growth of 4%. This surge is attributed to a significant shift by shippers who opted for air freight’s speed and reliability amidst ongoing economic disruptions. Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta's Chief Airfreight Officer, noted that the final quarter experienced higher-than-expected volumes, benefiting both service providers and shippers alike in the balance of freight rates.

Challenges Ahead: The E-Commerce Influence

However, the e-commerce landscape is showing signs of strain, particularly with shipments from China. Data indicates that cross-border e-commerce exports have barely grown, with low-value shipments experiencing a meager 1% rise year-on-year in November. More concerning is the sharp decline in shipments to the U.S., where a staggering 52% drop in November marks a boiling point for e-commerce trends. This downturn is heavily influenced by increased regulations, like the impending €3 customs duty for low-value parcels set to take effect in July 2026 within the EU.

Spot Rates and Capacity Dynamics Shifting

While demand maintained a strong leading edge against increased supply during December, global airfreight spot rates fell by 4% year-on-year, with varying dynamics across major trade routes. Notably, the Europe-North America westbound route recorded a significant 13% drop. This reflects ongoing concerns over consumers' diminishing purchasing power and is further complicated by increasing costs associated with e-commerce logistics.

Future Forecasts and Industry Outlook

Looking forward, Xeneta's projections signal a more cautious approach, estimating a modest 2-3% growth in 2026. The evolving landscape indicates that while e-commerce remains a crucial component driving air cargo demand, both regulatory pressures and economic fluctuations are likely to challenge growth trajectories. Sourcing trends may pivot as shippers brace for more favorable rates amidst anticipated demand slowdowns.

Action Steps for Stakeholders

For airlines, logistics managers, and business travelers, understanding these market trends is vital. Engagement with evolving e-commerce regulations and awareness of shifting trade routes can drive better decision-making. Anticipating the fluctuating rates and preparing for potential impacts on supply chain logistics will be essential in navigating the complexities of this changing environment.